分析高度城市化区域土地利用结构演化以及驱动因素,可为优化区域未来的土地利用结构、促进土地资源的保护和高效利用提供科学依据。采用1998~2008年苏州市土地利用变更调查数据,运用土地利用数量变化、程度变化和空间变化等指标测算模型分析土地利用演化规律。结果表明:1998~2008年,苏州市耕地面积显著减少,农业结构调整明显;居民点及独立工矿用地面积急剧增加,与耕地减少呈显著负相关;土地利用程度综合指数逐年提升;苏州全域耕地、园地、城市用地相对变化率最大的均为昆山市,建制镇和独立工矿用地相对变化率最大的分别是张家港市和吴江市;利用主成分分析法对影响土地利用结构演化的人文因素进行了分析,得出驱动因素主要为:人口增长、经济发展、工业化和城镇化水平。走集约型城市化道路,实现"效率型"土地利用模式,注重社会、经济、生态效益相结合是今后土地利用努力的方向。
The purpose of this paper is to provide a scientific basis to optimize the land use structure and to promote conservation and efficient use of land resources by analyzing the evolution and driving factos of land use structure in the highly urbanized area.The land survey data of Suzhou and the model on number change,extent change and spatial change of land use were used to analyze the evolution of the land use.The results show that between the year 1998 and 2008,the cultivated area of Suzhou had reduced significantly and the structure of agriculture land had adjusted.Settlement and incompatible industry land area had increased dramatically and it was significantly negatively correlated with the reduction of arable land.The index of land use degree increased year by year.Kunshan had the greatest relative change rate on arable land,garden land and urban land.Zhangjiagang and Wujiang,respectively,had the greatest relative change rate on towns land and incompatible industry land.The main driving factor to economic society were discussed by means of the principal component analytical method.Through the above analysis,it would be concluded that the main driving factors affecting the evolution of the land use structure were population growth,economic development,industrialization and urbanization.The direction of land use in the future is to take the intensive urbanization,achieve "efficiency-based" land use patterns and focus on the combination of social,economic and ecological benefits.