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中文摘要：
水库中长期入库径流量的预报方法有多种模型,各有优缺点,预报结果也存在一定差异,应用过程中给实际决策造成了一定困难。本文以丹江口水库月径流量为研究对象,通过分析多种预报模型计算结果的变化规律,将精度和稳定性等作为性能指标,构建以加权平均和最小二乘法原理为基础的综合预报模型,并对丹江口水库月径流预报进行了建模计算。应用结果表明,该综合模型提高了预报精度,增强了预报稳定性,使其具有更高可信度,为入库径流量预报提供了一个有效的分析方法,为水库调度决策提供了便利。
英文摘要：
There are many models for forecasting mid-long term runoff and give different forecast results. which result in difficulties in decision making. In this paper the monthly runoff of the Danjiangkou Reservoir is adopted as the research objective, to analyze the variation of forecast results. Regarding the precision and stability as the performance index, an comprehensive forecast model is established based on the theory of weighted average and least-square method. The monthly runoffs of different models show that the comprehensive model could significantly improve the accuracy of prediction and the stability of forecast. The reliability of results can be raised.
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