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中文摘要：
随着国际形势的持续变化，气候谈判中的国家集团也不断分化重组，是什么因素影响了国家间的结盟或分离？本研究采用聚类统计方法和排放配额的最偏好原则比较对国家集团结盟展开了分析。研究发现：（1）欧盟集团中的东欧和南欧国家在经济和技术水平上与西欧和北欧国家存在较大差距，不能与西欧和北欧国家形成稳定的关系；（2）“G77＋中国”集团是当前气候谈判中最不稳定的国家集团，中国与G77集团成员国家在自然要素、排放要素以及配额原则偏好等方面均存在较大的差别，石油输出国和热带雨林国家也与其他G77国家在经济条件、排放水平等方面存在较大差距，这将导致“G77＋中国”集团的瓦解；（3）中国与美国在自然要素、排放现状、未来气候变化预期等方面以及配额原则偏好上存在共同点，或可以在全球应对气候变化谈判中形成新的伙伴关系。
英文摘要：
In the world climate negotiation, climate coalitions keep splitting and reconstructing. Therefore, it is necessary to look into the inner drivers for such splits and reconstructions. This paper develops the analysis on coalitions in climate negotia- tion based on cluster method and comparison on the national favorite principle for emission quota allocation. It is found that there is a large gap in economy and technology between east and south Europe and west and north Europe, which would lead to the unstable coalition of EU. The Group of 77 （G77 and China） is the most unstable group in climate negotiation, in which China is different with other G77 countries in natural factors, emission factors, and preference on emission allocation principle and petroleum exporting countries and tropical rainforest countries in G77 group are likely to split from G77 due to their eco- nomic and emission differences. Results also show that China and the US are similar on natural factors, emission factors, antici- pation on climate change, and preference on emission allocation principle, which indicates that there may be a potential for their coalition.
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