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中文摘要：
目的分别建立郴州市常住居民循环系统疾病死亡人数ARIMA和指数平滑法预测模型,为当地主动防治循环系统疾病提供参考,提高卫生系统反应力。方法对2006-2013年郴州市循环系统疾病进行死因分析,并在此基础上分别构建含自变量的ARIMA以及指数平滑法死亡人数预测模型。结果八年间郴州市循环系统疾病死亡人数呈增速减缓的上升趋势,两个模型均具有统计学意义,Ljung-Box统计量检验残差序列为白噪声序列（P=0.94）,（P=0.11）,ARIMA模型BIC=8.80,指数平滑法模型BIC=8.13。结论建立ARIMA和指数平滑模型预测郴州市循环系统疾病死亡人数具有一定的可行性。
英文摘要：
Objective To establish ARIMA and RMA models for forecasting death toll of circulatory system diseases in Chen Zhou City residents,and to provide scientific methods and evidences for disease prevention and improve health system responsiveness. Methods The ARIMA and RMA death toll prediction modelswereestablished by analysis of the death causes from 2006 to 2013. Results The death toll of circulatory system diseases had a slowdown upward trend in Chen Zhou for eight years.Both models were statistically significant. Ljung-Box statistic test residue of both models were white noise sequence（P=0.94）,（P=0.11）. BIC ofmodels were 8.8and 8.13. Conclusions Establish ARIMA model to predict the death toll of circulatory system diseases in Chen Zhou is feasible.
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