中文摘要：

华南前汛期的预报是气象和水利工作者共同关注的重要课题,由于大气环流场的变化会对大范围降水产生影响,比如华南前汛期,而地球章动的变化将引起大气环流场的改变,从而影响天气,基于此理论本文探索1982-2012年间章动变化与华南沿海前汛期极端降水量的相关性,结果发现,4月旬降水量最大值年份对应的前60天章动较最小年份,其振幅大或波动频繁;6月降水量最大值年份对应的前60天章动较最小年份,其振幅明显小或波动少;5月为转折期,章动反相之后,其章动特征与6月趋于一致.月降水量最大值年对应的章动变化,其振幅相对较小,或波动相对较少,这也反映了决定月降水量大小的环流以纬向环流占优势,以上发现为大范围极端降水提供了一种新的预报思路和方法.

英文摘要：

The prediction of the pre-flood season in Southern China is an important subject of the meteorological and water conservancy workers. Atmospheric circulation change will affect largescale rainfall,such as pre-flood season in South China,nutation variation of earth can conduce to variation of atmospheric circulation,and then affect weather. Based on the theory,the relevance of nutation variation and extreme precipitation of pre-flood season in South China’s coastal zone is analyzed during 1984-2012. The result show that the amplitude of nutation variation of 60 days is larger or fluctuation is frequenter in such year in which maximum precipitation of ten days in APR than in the year of minimum precipitation,the variation is reverse in JUN,and MAY is transition period,characteristic of nutation tend to be condistent to JUN after opposition of nutation. the amplitude of nutation is smaller,or fluctuation is less in the year in which maximum monthly precipitation of APR-JUN than min,the result means that the zonal circulation is dominant that affect monthly precipitation in APRJUN. The above study provide with a new forecast thought and methods for largescale extreme precipitation.