已有解决秘书问题的方法主要是以取样选项中的最大值作为标杆,其优点是能保证赢的概率最大,但很少考虑决策者的有限理性与启发式偏见。探索性地提出截止阀法则的均值标杆与次大值标杆策略的设想,通过计算机仿真实验与理论求解验证与比较了该策略的特征与规律。结果发现,均值标杆的决策最优度明显优于最大值标杆,决策最优度随标杆变动呈U型曲线变化趋势,最高点是均值标杆20%及其附近,赢的概率随着标杆的降低而逐渐减少,且最优截止阀值也不断后移。
The Secretary Problem (SP) is a class decision task of sequential observation and selection in which describes the dynamic decision process with searching information stage by stage, and the essential decision is when to stop searching additional information but not which alternative to be chosen. The maximal alternative as benchmark is the chief characteristic of many established cutoff rule and optimal policy, and the rule would ensure the most probability to win but not take into account the decision-maker's bounded rationality and heuristic bias. Therefore, the paper proposes the mean benchmark and sub-maximum benchmark of cutoff rule, then tests and compares their effectiveness by computer simulation and theory solution. The results show that the proposed rule is better than the established rule on decision-making optimization degree where there is a Ucurve change with benchmark movement, and that the probability of decision-maker to win becomes linear decrease with benchmark sinking down.