中文摘要：

内陆河流域水资源极为紧缺,理解农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略选择倾向对于制定科学的水资源管理政策至关重要。以石羊河中下游为研究区,基于农户调查数据,分析了农户对水资源紧缺的感知及适应策略,并利用经济计量模型分析了农户的水资源紧缺性感知对其适应策略选择的影响。结果发现：1农户感知到的水资源紧缺可能性、严重性、适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能处于中等水平;2水资源紧缺风险感知与适应功效感知、适应成本感知呈显著正相关,其与自我效能感知虽呈负相关,但并不显著;3农户的适应策略多样化指数达2.80,水资源紧缺严重性感知、适应功效感知、适应成本感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化指数呈显著正相关;4随着风险感知与适应功效感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率增大,但随着自我效能感知的增强,农户首选收缩型策略的概率降低。最后,提出了增强农户适应能力的对策建议及未来需进一步关注的问题。

英文摘要：

In recent years, the farmer＇s perception of environment change and their adaption strategies has been the research focus of the adaptation domain. Water resource shortage is the most serious environmental problem in the continental river basin of arid zone, it is badly in need of looking for the effective adaptation strategies in order to reduce the adverse impact of water resource shortage. Understanding the farmers＇ perception of water resource shortage and adaption strategy selection is very important to determine the proper adaptation strategy and make scientific water resource management policy. Selecting the middle-lower reaches of the Shiyang River as the study case and through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal and investigation of plots, 367 household are investigated and sampled. Based on the investigation data and the MPPACC（a socio- cognitive model of private proactive adaptation to climate change） analysis framework which Grothmann and Patt provided, we analyze the farmers＇ perception of water resource shortage and their adaption strategies, and analyze the impact of the farmers＇ water resource shortage perception on theirs adaption strategies by multiple linear regression model and binary logistic model. The results show： 1）These perception index are relatively high which include the farmer＇s water resource shortage possibility perception, severity perception,adaption effect and adaption cost perception, the index of these perception is 4.65, 4.69, 4.19 and 4.38,respectively. However, the perception of self-efficacy is middle level and its index is 3.02; 2） The relationship between the farmers＇ water resource shortage risk perception and the adaption effect perception, the adaption cost perception are significant positive correlation, but the relationship between the risk perception and the adaption cost perception is insignificant negative correlation; 3）The diversification index of the farmers＇ adaption strategy is 2.80, and the relationship