中文摘要：

基于泛长江三角洲2002~2012年市域面板数据,并借助面板SDM及空间效应分解方法,对区域城市旅游经济发展及其动力因子的空间效应进行实证分析。结果表明：1区域城市入境和国内旅游发展都存在明显的空间依赖性和空间溢出效应,当邻近城市入境和国内旅游发展水平每提高1%,将促进本城市入境和国内旅游发展水平增加约0.257%和0.312%;2区域城市入境和国内旅游发展各动力因子的空间交互作用也较为明显。旅游资源禀赋、旅游服务设施、旅游交通设施和城市经济发展水平对入境旅游发展具有显著的空间溢出效应,旅游服务设施和城市经济发展水平对国内旅游发展的空间溢出效应也较显著。3保障性因子多为正向溢出,吸引性因子多为负向溢出。前者体现了动力因子的空间模仿效应,后者反映了空间竞争效应。保障性因子和吸引力因子的空间效应强度及作用路径差异推动着区域旅游发展格局不断演进。

英文摘要：

Based on the panel data of urban tourism development and its dynamic factors in Pan-Yangtze River Delta from2002 to 2012, we analyzed spatial effect of urban domestic and inbound tourism development through Spatial Panel Durbin Model. The results show that：（1） Urban inbound and domestic tourism development in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta has obvious spatial dependence effects and positive spatial spillover effects. If the level of urban domestic and inbound tourism development increases by 1%, it will directly promote the level of regional domestic and inbound tourism development growth by 0.257% and 0.312%;（2） The spatial spillover effects of dynamic factors on urban domestic and inbound tourism development are also obvious. The level of tourism resources endowment, tourism service facilities, tourism traffic facilities and economic development has an obvious spatial spillover effect on inbound tourism development, where the level of tourism service facilities and economic development has an obvious spatial spillover effect on domestic tourism development;（3） The spatial interaction of affordable factors are positive spillover effects, where the attractable factors are negative spillover effects. Because of the difference of the spatial interaction and its intensity of affordable factors and attractable factors, the spatial pattern shows constant evaluation.