中文摘要：

利用京津冀地区耕地面积统计资料为基础,采用耕地资源变化率计算方法和灰色预测法,分析和预测了该地区耕地的变化及趋势.研究结果表明:1985-2007年京津冀地区耕地总面积呈波动下降趋势,总共减少924.3 k hm2,多年平均变化率为-0.59%.耕地的三种类型之中,旱地和水田面积几乎年年减少,多年平均变化率分别为-3.57%和-0.73%,而水浇地的面积在大部分年份都有所增加,多年平均变化率为0.85%.2020年,京津冀地区的耕地总量将从2007年的6 531.61 k hm2减小至6 164.4 k hm2,耕地总面积平均每年减少0.44%,即28.7 k hm2.旱地和水田将继续保持较高的减少率,平均每年分别减少2.57%和0.84%.而水浇地的预测结果为2007年至2020年间每年稍增0.17%.在未来的十几年中,尽管耕地减少的速率减缓,但是京津冀地区耕地保护的压力依然很大.

英文摘要：

Based on statistical data of farmland area in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region,the farmland change and trend were analyzed using land use change indices and grey prediction methods.The results indicated that the total farmland area was reduced by 924.3 k hm2,averaged -0.59％ per year from 1985 to 2007.Of the three farmland types,rainfed farmland and paddy field decreased significantly by -3.57％ and -0.73 ％ per year,respectively,while the irrigated farmland increased by 0.85 ％ per year.In 2020,the total area of farmland was predicted to decrease to 6 164.4 k hm2 from 6 531.61 k hm2 in 2007,reduced by 0.44％ or 28.7 k hm2 per year;Rainfed farmland and paddy field would keep a higher reducing rate at 2.57 ％ and 0.84％,respectively,while irrigated farmland was predicted to slightly increase by 0.17％ per year in 2007-2020.In the next ten years,although the farmland reduction was predicted to slow down,considerable pressure on the regional farmland protection still exists in the BTH region.