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中文摘要：
1960-2005年期间，沈阳气候受全球气候变暖的影响，年平均气温总体呈上升趋势，气温升幅为0．96℃，但以1982年为界，1960-1982年为偏冷阶段，气温降幅最大值为1．95℃；1983-2005年为偏暖阶段，气温升幅最大值为1．60℃。一年四季气温处于上升阶段，以冬、春季气温升幅最大，分别为2．3℃和1．35℃。城市森林主要树种的春季物候期，在气候偏冷阶段，春季物候期出现较晚，而在偏暖阶段，春季物候期提前发生。同时，物候春季开始日期与结束日期有密切的同步相关性，并与物候季节节奏的长短呈负相关。树木萌动期早晚与冬季和早春气温高低呈显著的负相关，冬春季气温越高，芽萌动越提前。展叶早晚主要受展叶前的春季气温高低的影响，与冬季气温相关性不显著。始花前2—8旬，特别是2—4旬气温对始花期影响最显著。寒冷指数（CI）与树木芽萌动期、展叶始期呈显著正相关，而与开花始期相关性不显著。预测了CO2倍增和气温升高条件下，沈阳城市森林主要树种的萌动期、展叶始期和开花始期分别提前40．41、43．08和24．13d。
英文摘要：
In last 40 years （ 1960-2005）, the spring phenology of Shenyang urban forest was affected by global warming. The mean annual air temperature of Shenyang had an overall increase, with the increment being 0. 96 ℃. Before 1982, it was relative cold and the maximal of the decrease was 1.95 ℃ ; while after 1982, it was relative warm and the maximal increment was 1.60 ℃. The air temperature was increased in the whole year, with the maximal increment in winter （2. 3 ℃ ） and spring （ 1.35 ℃ ）. The spring phenologieal phase of main tree species in Shenyang urban forest presented itself later in relatively cold period, but in advance in the relatively warm period. The dates of the beginning and ending of the spring phenologieal phase had a close synchronous relationship, and correlated negatively with the length of the seasonal rhythm of phenology. There was a significant negative correlation between the date of budding and the air temperature in winter and early spring. The higher the air temperature in winter and early spring, the earlier the tree budded. The date of sprouting new leaves was mainly affected by the air temperature in spring and had less correlation with the temperature in winter, while that of early flowering was mainly affected by the air temperature 20-80 days （especially 20-40 days） before early flowering. Coldness index （CI） had significant positive correlations with the dates of budding and sprouting new leaves, but less correlation with the date of early flowering. It was predicted that under the conditions of elevated CO2 concentration and air temperature, the dates of budding, sprouting new leaves, and early flowering of the main tree species in Shenyang urban forest would be advanced for 40. 41,43.08, and 24. 13 days, respectively.
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