中文摘要：

理论分析了汇率、利率、资产价格与短期国际资本流动之间的相互关系,并采用VAR模型实证分析了中国在2006年1月至2014年12月间汇率、利率差、资产价格和中国短期国际资本流动之间的动态关系。实证结果表明：短期资本净流入会促进人民币升值、利率差变化幅度加大和资产价格上涨;人民币贬值会促进短期国际资本净流入;利率差变大和资产价格上涨对短期国际资本的流入并没有明显效应;短期国际资本流动方差主要可以由其自身解释,在其他三因素中,汇率和利率差的解释性较强。基于以上结论,结合目前中国面临短期国际资本流出这一宏观问题提出了相关政策建议。

英文摘要：

This thesis theoretically analyzes the relationship among short-run international capital flows,exchange rate,interest rate spread and asset prices in China. VAR model is then adopted to identify the dynamic relationship of these factors during the period of January 2006 to December 2014 empirically. The results indicate the depreciation of RMB will promote the net inflow of short-run international capital flows,and higher interest rate and rising asset price have no evident effect on the inflow of short-run international capital flows,and the variance of short-run international capital flows can be explained by itself as well. Furthermore,short-run international capital flows shows higher dependency on exchange rate and interest rate spread than asset prices. These findings contribute to put forward policy recommendations to local government in terms of the station of short-run international capital outflow.