中文摘要：

模型模拟是到气候的效果在农业上改变的学习的一条重要的路。因为不完全的知识或模型，如此的评价服从于无常的一个范围技术无常，阻碍有效决策到气候变化。根据在在不同层次的影响评价的无常，这篇文章系统地以气候设计，评价过程，和连接到气候模型的庄稼模型在农业上在对气候变化的效果的评价总结无常的来源和繁殖。同时，集中于无常和无常繁殖的不同层次和来源的技术和方法被介绍，并且在无常处理的缺点和不足被指出。以怎么精确地在农业上估计气候变化的效果，最后，推进减少潜力无常的改进被建议。

英文摘要：

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.