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水文过程非平稳性研究若干问题探讨
  • ISSN号:0023-074X
  • 期刊名称:《科学通报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学;天文地球—地质学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地水循环与地表过程重点实验室,北京100101, [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072, [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金(91647110,91547205,51579181,41330529); 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维优秀青年人才计划; 中国科学院青年创新促进会资助
中文摘要:

探讨了水文过程非平稳性和全球变化水文响应等热点问题.首先明确了水文系统稳定性与水文过程非平稳性研究对象的差异:水文系统稳定性改变主要指环境变化影响下水文物理系统发生变化,即水文过程确定成分和确定性规律改变,而水文过程非平稳性主要指水文过程随机成分的统计特征发生变化.系统梳理了水文过程非平稳特性研究的若干关键问题,包括水文非平稳性的研究对象、表现方式、判别依据和方法、描述方法等.指出水文过程非平稳性研究应重点关注水文过程的随机成分,应使用三阶宽平稳对水文平稳性进行判别,以满足工程水文设计、水资源评价等需求;可利用随机水文学理论方法判别水文过程非平稳性,对水文过程周期和趋势等特性进行识别,再对随机成分的平稳性进行判断,为随机模拟和水文预报等奠定基础.上述水文过程非平稳性若干关键问题的界定和明确,有望为研究环境变化水文响应的关键科学问题提供借鉴和参考.

英文摘要:

Due to the great influence of both global climate change and human activities, climatic and hydrological processes in many basins and regions worldwide show obviously nonstationary variability, which has obvious impact on diverse practical water activities such as the hydrological simulation and forecasting, hydrological and hydraulic designs, hydrological risk evaluation and adaption, and water resources planning and management, and also affect the socioeconomic developments as well as people's lives. Over the last decade, nonstationarity in hydrological process has been becoming a hot and frontier topic in the studies of hydrology and global climate change. However, those basic and major issues on the scientific topic have not been systemically studied, and some understandings about it are limited. In this article, we mainly focused on several major issues about the studies of hydrological nonstationarity. First, we discussed and clarified the difference between the stability of hydrological system and the hydrological nonstationarity. It is pointed out that the former is mainly to study whether the physical hydrological system in a basin keeps its stability under the impacts of both climate change and human activities, which is usually quantified by the deterministic characteristics of hydrological processes, and then simulated by proper physical hydrological models. However, the hydrological nonstationarity is mainly to study whether the statistical characteristics of stochastic hydrological process is changed, including not only the nonstationarity in stochastic components, but also the nonstationarity in deterministic components of hydrological process. Then, we further discussed some key issues about the topic of hydrological nonstationarity, mainly including the research objects, expressing ways, determining criteria, and identification and description methods. We finally pointed out that the studies of hydrological nonstationarity should focus on the stochastic components of hydrological process and th

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期刊信息
  • 《科学通报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院
  • 主编:周光召
  • 地址:北京东黄城根北街16号
  • 邮编:100717
  • 邮箱:csb@scichina.org
  • 电话:010-64036120 64012686
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:0023-074X
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-1784/N
  • 邮发代号:80-213
  • 获奖情况:
  • 首届国家期刊奖,中国期刊方阵“双高”期刊,第三届中国出版政府奖
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 美国化学文摘(网络版),美国数学评论(网络版),美国工程索引,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:81792