中文摘要：

城镇化发展对碳排放的影响日益受到关注.通过对河南省1978-2013年能源消耗碳排放进行测算,基于STIRPAT模型,运用岭回归方法,分析河南省城镇化对碳排放影响的驱动因素.结果表明：河南省能源消耗和碳排放总量呈不断上升趋势,能源强度和碳排放强度逐年下降,煤炭消耗处于主导地位但所占比重有所下降;各地市碳排放量与城镇化率趋于一致;对河南省碳排放有正向影响的因素按其影响程度从大到小排列依次为：人口城镇化水平、土地城镇化水平、工业化水平、城镇居民消费水平、第三产业发展水平;技术水平对碳排放有负向影响,且影响程度较高.据此提出河南省低碳城镇化发展的相关建议.

英文摘要：

The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has been paid more and more attention.Based on the annual energy consumption from 1978 to 2013in Henan Province,carbon emissions were estimated in this paper first.Then based on the STIRPAT model,we used the ridge regression method to construct the driving factors model which can reflect the impact on carbon emissions of urbanization in Henan Province.The results showed that：the total energy consumption and carbon emissions in Henan were rising,energy intensity and carbon intensity appeared a declining trend,and coal consumption was in a dominant position,but the proportion has declined;five factors had a positive impact on carbon emissions in Henan such as the proportion of urban population,the urban built-up area,industrial output,per capita disposable income of urban residents,and the tertiary industry output value,and they were in descending order;unit GDP energy consumption had a negative impact on carbon emissions in Henan,and its degree of influence was very high.Divided into different stages,1978-1990,energy consumption and carbon emissions were in a state of flux change,and both positive and negative growth turned out;1992-2002,energy consumption and carbon emissions volatility were relatively small and were all positive growth;2003-2013,the change of energy consumption and carbon emissions was bigger,after the sharp growth of 2003 and 2004,negative growth appeared in 2012,which was the first time during the nearly 20 years.By comparison,the urbanization level and carbon emissions closed to accordance in different cities in Henan Province.Finally,we made some recommendations for low-carbon development in Henan Province.