中文摘要：

目的分析淮河流域疟疾流行的空间分布特征,为疟疾防控提供依据。方法运用克立格空间插值法,分析不同地区疟疾发病率的空间自相关性,构建变异函数,制作淮河流域不同区域尺度（县、乡）疟疾流行的空间分布图;比较不同年份空间分布特征的变化观察疟疾流行的态势,推测下一年疟疾流行的可能趋势。结果流域不同地区疟疾发病率存在空间自相关性,制作的空间分布图显示：流域东北部是疟疾的相对高发区,从2004至2006年,疟疾的流行强度增加,流行范围扩大。发病率大于1/万的流行区呈现出以墉桥区、固镇县、蒙城县为中心,向西、南方向蔓延,发病率大于10/万的乡呈现出流行范围由局部区域向西、北和东3个方向蔓延之势。结论淮河流域疟疾的流行总体上仍处于上升阶段,疟防形势较为严峻。

英文摘要：

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of malaria in the Hnaihe river basin, and provide evidence for malaria control. Methods The Kringing of spacial gridding method was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of malaria prevalence rates in different vectors areas, construct the variation function, and then draw up the spatial distribution map of malaria epidemic with different regional scale （ county, town） in the Huaihe river basin. By comparing the change of the spatial distribution characteristics in different years, the status of malaria epidemic was observed and the possible tendency was also predicted. Results The spatial autocorrclation of malaria prevalence rates in different vectors areas was found. The spatial distribution map showed that, the northeast areas of Huaihe were the relative high incidence of malaria. And intensity and scale of malaria epidemic increased or enlarged from 2004 to 2006. Endemic districts in which the malaria prevalence rate was over 1/10000 radiated from three counties （ Yongqiao, Guzhen, Mengcheng） , and had the western and the south trend. The villages in which the malaria prevalence rate was over 10/10000 showed that epidemic scale had a change trend from local region to west, north, and east. Conclusion On the whole, malaria epidemic in the Huaihe river basin is still in rising stage, the situation of malaria control and prevention is relatively stern.