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中文摘要：
高拱坝变形安全监控指标，对于监控和保证大坝的安全运行及评价大坝的工作状态具有重要意义．文中首次把蒙特卡罗方法引入大坝安全监控指标拟定中，结合大坝原型观测资料，并考虑了基本变量的随机性，所拟定的变形监控指标，不仅具有概率意义，同时也对坝体的结构和材料特性进行了模拟，因此较传统方法更加合理科学．
英文摘要：
For any high arch dam, the deformation monitoring index is very significant for monitoring its operation and evaluating its safety. The Monte-Carlo method is firstly applied in the study on the deformation monitoring index cousidering the prototype observation data and the randomness of basic variables. The monitoring index not only contains probability, but also embodies the structure and material properties. So, it is more scientific and more reasonable.
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