中文摘要：

本文通过对地震次生火灾进行数值模拟,首先以单元可靠度作为控制参数,引入了接警时域单元并应用Monte Carlo方法对救灾过程进行可靠性分析,首次提出接警失效率的概念,并给出框架公式。其次文中将地震后网络各单元状态近似看作齐次马尔可夫链过程,估算多种影响下单元可靠度的动态变化及救灾过程可靠性的变化。

英文摘要：

Through the numerical simulation of post-earthquake fire,by using the element reliability as control parameters,this paper firstly introduces the alert time-domain element and uses the Monte Carlo method for analyzing the reliability of the disaster relief network.We increase the failture rate of alert conception for the first time,and give it a initial formula.Secondly,treating the statements of the network elements after earthquake as a process of homogeneous Markov chain,we estimate the dynamic variation of element reliability under multi-effect and the variation of the reliability for the disaster relief system.