中文摘要：

提出一种实时鸟击风险评估方法．该方法利用机场探鸟雷达获取的实时鸟情信息，通过估计鸟击概率和严重程度实时评估鸟击风险．以飞鸟和跑道位置为自变量建立预估方程，计算鸟击概率．将德尔菲法和层次分析法（AHP，Analytic Hierarchy Process）相结合，建立鸟击严重程度估计模型；该模型充分利用了专家知识和定量计算的优点，称为DAHP模型．为减少该模型中同一层次上参数的个数，将影响评估结果的因素置于一个双层模型中，避免由于同一层次上参数过多造成比较矩阵不满足一致性的问题．本评估方法经过了三跑道的北京首都国际机场仿真数据和单跑道的北海福城机场实测数据的测试．

英文摘要：

A method that uses the real-time bird information collected by the airport-based avian radar system to assess the bird strike risk with the estimation of bird strike probability and severity was proposed. The strike probability was calculated by the prediction equation with the independent variables of the relative positions of the bird and the runway. The strike severity was estimated by the combination of the Delphi meth od and the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） , called DAHP, which take full advantage of the expert knowl edge and quantitative calculation. To reduce the number of parameters on the same level of the DAHP model, the influencing factors of the evaluation results were arranged in a two-level model, which could avoid the problem of inconsistency of the comparison matrix due to the high number of parameters on the same level. The assessment method was tested on the simulated data at Beijing capital international airport with three run ways and the real data at Beihai Fucheng airport with one runway.