双变量联合分布及重现期计算是水文干旱研究的重要内容。根据游程理论确定水文干旱事件,利用Copula函数建立干旱历时和烈度的联合分布,计算不同干旱事件的重现期。实例分析结果表明,联合分布可以考虑干旱历时与烈度不同组合情况,计算的联合重现期大于边际分布计算结果,泾河和北洛河最长历时干旱事件联合重现期为480 a和342 a。
The bivariate distribution of drought and return period were an important issue in hydrological drought study. Hydrologic drought events were defined by the run theory,the bivariate distribution of drought duration and drought severity were developed by adopting Copula function in this paper,the return period formulations of drought event were proposed. The results showed that the bivariate distribution of drought took the various combinations of drought duration and drought severity into consideration. The return period of joint distribution was bigger than marginal distribution's. Return periods of Jing river and Beiluo river's drought with the longest duration were 480 years and 342 years.