中文摘要：

在全球积极应对气候变化的大背景下,不论从自身经济发展需要,还是遵从国际相关条款,中国当前及未来都面临巨大的碳减排压力。准确估计碳排放量对于中国制定相关碳减排政策和应对国际谈判,都至关重要。尽管国内外针对碳排放量的研究很多,但是由于所采用的计算方法、数据来源、碳排放来源分类和能源排放系数等方面的不同,不同研究对于中国碳排放量的估计差异很大。本文利用Meta回归方法和多因素方差分析方法（ANOVA）对导致中国碳排放估计结果差异的因素进行了分析。研究结果表明,文献来源、碳排放系数、碳排放来源和分省计算与否是导致估计结果差异的主要因素,分别解释了碳排放估计结果差异的30.5%、29.7%、21.2%和11.8%。基于研究结果,提出在未来开展中国碳排放估计研究时,需要特别注意碳排放系数、碳排放来源和分省计算与否等关键性因素,客观准确地估计中国碳排放量,同时在国际气候变化谈判中要立足于中国权威机构和学者的研究结果。

英文摘要：

Under the background of responding to global climate change,China is facing huge pressure of reducing carbon emission at present and in the future,either for its own economic development needs or abiding by international conventions. Accurately estimating China’s carbon emission is vitally important to make polices for reducing carbon emission and dealing with international negotiations.Although there are many studies on thesis of estimating China’s carbon emission,the estimations on China’s carbon emission varied remarkably among different studies. Based on the broad and intensive literature reviews,the paper adopts a meta-analysis method and the multi-factor variance analysis（ ANOVA） to analyze the key factors that cause the large variations of estimations. Our results indicate the sources of researches and the choice of carbon emission coefficients affect the estimation significantly. The sources of researches,choice of carbon emission coefficient,energies classification and calculation based on national or provincial data are the four key determinants,accounting for 30. 5%,29. 7%,21. 2% and 11. 8% of variances of estimations respectively. According to our findings,it is proposed that the future studies to estimate China’s carbon emission should pay extreme attention on those key elements,and it should adhere to research output of Chinese authorities and scholars in international negotiations.