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中文摘要：
本文应用灰色动态模型和方法，对1989至2007年十大类出口商品结构对中国贸易竞争力指数的影响进行了静态和动态的研究，通过数据分析得出了各大类出口商品对我国贸易竞争力指数的贡献度大小。并且应用预测模型GM（1，1）对每一类出口商品的未来发展趋势进行了预测。通过检验证明，模型合理、方法简便可行。
英文摘要：
This article has researched the static and dynamic influence of export commodity structure on Chinese trade competitiveness index with grey dynamic models and methods from 1989 to 2007. It has found out the contribution of the commodity categories to Chinese trade competitiveness index. And, using the forecast model GM （1,1） it has forecasted the development trend of the each kind of category commodities. It has proved that the model is reasonable and the method is simple and feasible through inspection.
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