中文摘要：

采用在阴阳历叠加的基础上进行修正的方法,利用环渤海地区和青藏高原东北部地区1960-2010年地面测站降水、风速资料,探讨了阴阳历叠加法进行中长期天气预报的可行性.结果表明：对于不同地区,不同要素阴阳历叠加预报时最佳样本长度略有差异,降水预报时环渤海地区最佳样本长度为37 a,青藏高原东部地区最佳样本长度为20 a;对大风天气过程而言,环渤海地区最佳样本长度为34 a,青藏高原东北部地区为31 a.降水日预报检验表明,环渤海地区和青藏高原东北部地区降水日预报威胁评分（TS）呈单峰型变化,峰值均集中在夏季,6-8月降水日预报TS评分均高于0.4,两地各月降水日预报TS评分均高于气候概率.利用站点相关订正后,准确率最高可提高14.2%,最低提升了4.1%,平均提高9.8%,站点相关订正是有效的.两地大风预报准确率呈现单峰型分布特征,并在3-5月间为明显的波峰,且两地的预报TS评分均高于气候概率TS评分,预报是有效的.

英文摘要：

In this study, the mid-range forecasting using bias-corrected lunar-solar calendar superposition was dis- cussed, using the observed precipitation data and wind data from 1960 to 2010 in two areas, one around Bohai Rim and other concerning northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results showed that the best lengths of samples differ in both regions with different forecast variables. For precipitation forecasting, the best lengths of samples are 37 a and 20 a in Bohai Rim and northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau respectively; for wind forecasting, they are 34 a and 31 a respectively. In both areas, the threat score（TS） evaluations of daily precipitation forecasting showed one single peak occurring in summer. TS evaluations from June to August are larger than 0.4, and they are larger than climatic probability in each month. After a bias-correction, the increase of accuracy was from 4.1% to 14.2% with a mean value of 9.8~, indicating that the b~a~-correction is effective. In both areas, TS evaluations of daily wind forecasting Mso showed one single peak occurring from March to May. TS evaluations in both areas are larger than climatic probability. The wind forecasting is also effective.