中文摘要：

高可信度数值模拟软件已成为工程设计与事故分析的重要支撑,基于实验测量数据对复杂物理模型与多物理过程数值模拟软件可信度量化是发展高可信度数值模拟软件的最佳途径。炸药爆轰过程模拟采用物理模型大多是唯象建模,含有认知与偶然混合型不确定度,发展高置信度数值模拟软件必须基于实验数据量化其各类不确定度。文章基于验证与确认（V＆V）方法,明确定义模型分层确认中单一实验、基准实验、子系统试验和全系统试验的概念与内涵,据此构建炸药爆轰弹塑性流体力学数值模拟中物理模型分层确认树型图,此树型图为炸药爆轰过程物理模型确认所需确认试验及模型分层确认提供策略,并建议据此分层确认试验开展单层与跨层物理模型的不确定度量化,为研制高可信度数值模拟软件提供有效可行方法。

英文摘要：

Numerical simulation software with high confidence has become an important technology in engineering design and accident analysis. Quantification the confidence degree of numerical simulation software in complex physical model and multi-physics process is usually done through experiment data, it has become the most appropriate approach in developing high confidential numerical simulation software. The physical model used in the numerical simulation of explosive detonation is phenomenological in reality. Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties exist in the model, so different types of uncertainties in experiment data must be quantified to develop high confidential numerical simulation software. These uncertainties must be quantified to develop high confidential numerical simulation technique. This paper utilizes the verification and validation （V＆V） methodology to describe the procedure, principle and concept of benchmark experiments, subsystem cases, unit problems, and integer-system experiments. Then, we use this method to construct the hierarchy tiers of physical modeling in the numerical simulation of explosive detonation fluid dynamics with elastic and plastic terms. These tiers provide a strategy for validation of physical model of explosive detonation. Then uncertainty quantification of single tiers and trans-ties are executed respectively through the hierarchy ties method. The methodology used in this paper is proved to be efficient in developing high confidential numerical simulation software.