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Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing：a case study

ISSN号：0253-505X
期刊名称：《海洋学报：英文版》
时间：0
分类：P434[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]
作者机构：[1]Physical Oceanography Laboratory, 0cean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China, [2]Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China, [3]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China, [4]Key Laboratory for Polar Science of State Oceanic Administration, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China
相关基金：The Ocean Public Welfare Project of China under contract No.201205007,the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41176169,41376005,41376188 and 41106165 Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the National Snow and Ice Data Center （NSIDC） and the University of Bremen for provid- ing the ice concentration data, and National Center for Envi- ronmental Prediction （NCEP） for providing the atmospheric reanalysis and orecasting data.

作者： YANG Qinghua[1,2], LIU Jiping[3], ZHANG Zhanhai[4], SUI Cuijuan[2], XING Jianyong[2], LI Ming[2], LI Chunhua[2], ZHAO Jiechen[2], ZHANG Lin[2]

关键词：北极海冰, 浓度预测, 大气环流, 敏感性, 海洋环境预报, 美国麻省理工学院, 数值天气预报, 微波成像仪, Arctic Ocean, seaice concentration, forecast

中文摘要：

麻省理工学院一般发行量模型( MITgcm )的一种地区性的北极配置作为联合冰海洋模型被使用在国家水兵在北极海洋预报海冰条件中国( NMEFC )的环境预报中心，并且从环境预言全球预报系统( NCEP GFS )的国家中心的数字天气预言被用作大气的强迫。为了改进海，预报的冰，最近发达的极的天气研究和预报模型(极的 WRF ) 当模特儿预言也作为大气的强迫被测试。他们的预报表演作为初始化与二个不同的导出卫星的海冰集中产品被评估：(1 ) 特殊传感器微波成像器 / 声音(SSMIS ) 并且(2 ) 为曙光女神(AMSR-E ) 扫描辐射计的先进微波。三个摘要的盒子，在夏天 2010 在北极海洋上代表典型大气的发行量，被选择数字预报执行北极海冰实验。评估建议用极的 WRF 的海冰集中的预报大气的强迫作为与 NCEP GFS 的相比显示出一些改进。

英文摘要：

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model （MIT-gcm） is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China （NMEFC）, and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System （NCEP GFS） is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model （Polar WRF） model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions：（1） the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder （SSMIS） and （2） the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS （AMSR-E）. Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.

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