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中文摘要：
统计分析了109条含有衬砌裂缝的隧道,获得了衬砌裂缝分布的特征规律和可能导致衬砌裂缝的底事件及其统计概率,建立了衬砌裂缝故障树模型.运用灰色关联分析法,确定了造成衬砌裂缝的主要致灾通道.为了获得可靠的底事件概率,提出了将统计概率与专家调查所得概率相结合的方法.结果表明：偏压、背后空洞、渗漏水、松弛地压和不均匀沉降等为衬砌裂缝的主要致灾通道.
英文摘要：
109 tunnels with lining cracks were summarized, and characteristic distribution laws of lining cracks and statistical probabilities of factors causing lining cracks were attained; the fault tree model of lining cracks was established based on identification of risk sources; furthermore, the main disease-inducing channels were obtained by grey relational analysis. In the analysis process, in order to get reliable probabilities of bottom events, the method to combine statistical probability and investigation probability by experts was proposed. The research results show that the asymmetric load, voids behind lining, water leakage, loosely pressure and uneven settlement are main disaster-inducing channels for lining cracks.
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