中文摘要：

为控制混凝土温度,分时段对拱坝温度状态预警评价机制进行研究。根据施工特点,由组合指数公式对光纤实测温度样本建立回归统计模型。通过小概率法估计特定龄期的超温控制指标,即容许温度和温度变化率,初拟超温控制节点。结合大坝施工技术要求,运用物元可拓理论对超温控制节点建立预警评价模型,并利用遗传算法对代表权重进行一致性优化处理。考虑施工进度和温度状态指标的后续影响,对超温预警信息进行反馈评价。工程实践表明：该预警评价机制适用于指导现场温控措施优化调整,具有一定的针对性与可操作性。

英文摘要：

To control the temperature of concrete dam blocks, we have developed a daily synthetic model for evaluation and prediction of concrete temperature conditions of arch dams. Based on the field monitoring data of typical concrete blocks, this model adopts a statistical sub-model for multiple regression analysis together with a combined index formula and a comprehensive exponential formula. It uses a small probability method to estimate the indexes of over-temperature control for a certain concrete age, i.e. allowable temperature and allowable temperature change rate, and determines over-temperature control nodes based on comparison with the temperature monitoring data. To meet the technical requirements by concrete dam construction, it applies a fuzzy matter-element theory in calculating feedback from the over-temperature nodes and evaluating indexes of construction schedule and temperature conditions and a genetic algorithm to optimize data consistency of index weights. Application to a practical project shows that the daily evaluation and prediction model can help in-site optimization and adjustment of concrete temperature control measures and has a good flexibility and convenience.