中文摘要：

以重庆市万州区为例,对 1997-2014年农业土地利用的碳平衡特征及影响因素进行分析,旨在为万州区发展低碳可持 续农业的土地利用模式提供依据.分析结果表明：万州区农业土地利用碳排放总量呈上升趋势,净碳汇量逐年下降.灰色关 联分析表明影响万州区农业碳排放的主要因子分别是化肥、灌溉和农药;logist ic回归模型分析表明万州区农业生产总值随农 业碳排放量增加而呈S 形增长,随着农业碳排放的增加农业总产值增速逐渐变缓.Kaya碳排放恒等式表明农业经济发展水 平是影响农业土地利用中碳排放量增加的首要因素.洛伦兹曲线从宏观角度显示万州区农业碳排放强度增速逐渐低于人均 GDP增长水平,与第-产业在国民经济中的比例下降有关.为实现农业和农村经济的可持续发展,今后万州区应加强农业 节能减排技术的研究和应用,积极控制农业用地的碳排放,提高碳利用效率.

英文摘要：

In order to provide references to the development mode of low-carbon and sustainable agriculture, the carbon sink-source relationship in land utilization in Wanzhou District of Chongqing during 1997-2014 was studied. The agricultural carbon emission of Wanzhou showed a rising trend and the net carbon sink decreased. By using gray correlation analysis model, the main factors impacting agriculture carbon emission were found to be fertilizer, irrigation and pesticides. The logistic regression model showed a S-type relationship between the to-tal agricultural output value and carbon emission, the growth rate of total agricultural output value decreasing with the increasing carbon emission. The Kaya equation indicated the economic development level as the most important factor influencing agricultural carbon emission. The Lorenz curve macroscopically revealed a gradually slower growth rate for the agricultural carbon emission than that for per capita GDP, mainly related to the descent ratio of primary industry in national economy. In order to realize sustainable agricultural and rural development, it is necessary for Wanzhou District to strengthen the research and application of energy-saving and emission-re-ducing technologies, to control carbon emission, and to raise carbon use efficiency in agricultural land utilization in the future.