中文摘要：

我国煤田水文地质条件复杂，尤其是矿井顸板水害一直对解放我国的煤炭储量构成了直接威胁，对矿井顶板水害进行预测评价具有重要的实际意义。在构建定量与定性指标相结合的煤层顶板突水评价指标体系和等级划分标准的基础上，将灰色关联分析法与基于指数标度的层次分析法相结合，建立了煤层顶板突水危险性评价模型。该评价模型不仅能够刻画突水的多因素决策特征，而且还可以对多层次的危险性评价结果进行反映并进行排序。评价结果可以为目标区的水害防治提供更多的信息。

英文摘要：

Geological and hydrogeological conditions in Chinese coal are very complex, and roof water disasters in mines have often restricted their production rates. Therefore, accurate and realistic prediction and assess- ment of roof water inrushes are very important and valuable. Grading standards are established on the basis of an index system of roof-water gush evaluation. Roof water gush risk assessment model is set up by combining grey relational analysis method and analytic hierarchy process. The evaluation model can not only describe the characteristics of muhi-faetor decision-water inrush, multilevel risk assessment results can also be reflected and sorted. The evaluation results can provide more information for water damage prevention.