中文摘要：

以叶尔羌河流域作为研究对象，选取河川径流量的SRI（Standardized RunoffIndex）作为干旱评价指标，划分了干旱等级。以水资源优化配置模型为基础，综合考虑了多种开源节流措施，分别应用综合效益满意度法和灰色关联度法对四种水资源配置方案进行了分析评价，最终确定了叶尔羌河流域的最优发展方案，同时，对最优方案的水资源配置结果进行了缺水分析。结果表明：干旱条件下的流域缺水率由原来的20．68％降低到4．53％，重度干旱条件下的缺水率降低到6．23％，特大干旱条件下的缺水率降低到6．54％，最优方案（方寨四）减小了存干旱发牛时的严雷缺水程序．可有效缓解流域的7k咨源供需矛盾。

英文摘要：

Taking Yarkand river basin as the study case, selecting SRI （ Standardized Runoff Index） value of river runoff as drought evaluation index and grade drought severity degree, based on water resources optimal allocation model, two evaluation models of water resources optimal allocation were built by taking the overall satisfaction and the Grey correlation degree. Four scenarios were analyzed for evaluation and the best design program was se- lected. The results show that water shortage rate reduced from 20.68% to 4.53% during drought periods, seri- ous drought periods and severe drought periods were 6.23% and 6.54%. The fourth emergency plan had signifi- candy reduced serious water shortages and eased the river basin. contradiction between water supply and demand for Yarkand