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中文摘要：
采用VAR模型，对1990--2009年山西省房地产价格波动与区域经济基本面变量的关系进行了定量分析，并对影响房价波动的关键因素进行了识别。研究表明：山西省的地区生产总值、城镇居民可支配收入、房地产投资额、城镇化水平与商品房价格存在协整关系，且前者均是商品房价格的Granger原因；市场主体预期对房地产价格的影响要大于宏观经济基本面因素。最后提出促进房地产业健康发展的相关建议。
英文摘要：
On the basis of descriptive analysis on the real estate development trend in Shanxi province, this paper uses VAR model to analyze the relationship between real estate price and regional economic, and identifies the key factors affecting the price volatility. The results show as follows：there is a co-integration relationship between housing price and GDP, urban dwellers＇ controllable income, real estate investment and ur- banization level,and these variables are all the Granger cause of price,the impact of expectation of market players on real estate market is greater than that of the macroeconomie variables. Finally,it puts forward some suggestions to promote the healthy development of real estate industry.
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