中文摘要：

笔者依据2005年～2010年中国30个省、自治区和直辖市的省际面板数据，通过构建联立方程模型，从国内投资、产出及就业等视角来判断外商直接投资对中国商贸服务业产业安全的影响。研究表明，全国和东部地区外商直接投资对国内投资和就业产生挤出效应、对产出产生挤入效应；中部地区外商直接投资对国内投资和产出产生挤入效应、对就业产生挤出效应；西部地区外商直接对国内投资产生挤出效应、对产出和就业产生挤入效用。这说明外商直接投资在一定程度上会对中国商贸服务业产业安全构成威胁，但不同区域、不同视角的影响效果不同。

英文摘要：

With the 2005 -2010 panel data of 30 provinces in China, the paper researches the impact of FDI on the safety of commercial service industry from domestic investment, output and employment in different region by simultaneous equations model . The results show that it produces crowding - out effect to domestic investment and employment, and produces direct crowding - in effect to domestic output in the country and the eastern region;it produces crowding- in effect to domestic investment and output, and produces crowding - out effect to employment in the central region ; it produces crowding - out effect to domestic investment, and produces crowding - in effect to output and employment in the western region. In a word, foreign direct investment poses a threat to business services industry security of China to a certain extent, but the effect is different in different perspectives and different regions.