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云南省干旱灾害风险评估
  • ISSN号:1004-4574
  • 期刊名称:《自然灾害学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:云南大学云南省国际河流与跨境生态安全重点实验室,昆明650091
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目(41301099,41561063); 云南省应用基础研究计划项目(2012FD007)
中文摘要:

本文基于红河流域43个气象站1961-2012年逐月降水、气温数据以及干支流2个水文站1956-2013年逐月流量数据,采用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和径流干旱指数(SDI)分析流域气象水文干旱的演变特征,并探讨水文干旱对气象干旱的响应。结果表明:(1)1961-2012年期间,流域总体上表现出干旱化的趋势,季节变化上春季有变湿的趋势,而夏、秋、冬三季有变干的趋势,但趋势并不显著。干旱频率季节空间分布差异较大,春旱和冬旱发生频率较高。从干旱范围来看,春旱范围呈缩小的趋势,夏旱、秋旱和冬旱范围表现出不同程度的增大趋势;(2)1956-2013年期间,流域水文干旱表现出加剧的趋势,其中1958-1963、1975-1982、1987-1993、2003-2006和2009-2013年为水文干旱多发期,近10年来频率明显增加;(3)流域水文干旱滞后于气象干旱1~8个月,气象和水文干旱事件的干旱历时、严重程度和强度之间具有紧密的相关性,流域气象干旱是水文干旱的主要驱动力。

英文摘要:

Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1961-2012 at 43 meteorological stations and discharge data from 1956-2013 at two hydrological stations on the Red River, we analyzed the variation of hydrological and meteorological droughts by using Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The results show that: (1) Meteorological droughts presented an increasing trend at the annual scale in 1961-2012. At the seasonal scale, a wetting trend was detected in the spring in most areas, and a drying trend was observed in the summer, the autumn, and the winter seasons. Regional differences have been found in seasonal drought frequency, and high frequency droughts occurred in the spring and the winter. The influence areas of drought decreased in the spring. In contrast, increased trend was found in the summer, the autumn, and the winter. (2) Hydrological drought indicated an increasing trend in 1956-2013. There were more hydrological droughts during 1958-1963, 1975-1982, 1987-1993, 2003-2006, and 2009-2013. Hydrological droughts occurred most frequently in the last decade. (3) Analysis of the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought indices shows that the occurrence of a hydrological drought event lagged a meteorological drought event by a variation of 1 to 8 months. The duration, magnitude, and intensity of meteorological droughts were well close to the characteristics of hydrological drought events. The most important factor that caused hydrological drought in the Red River Basin was meteorological drought.

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期刊信息
  • 《自然灾害学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国地震局
  • 主办单位:中国灾害防御协会 中国地震局工程力学研究所
  • 主编:谢礼立
  • 地址:哈尔滨市学府路29号
  • 邮编:150080
  • 邮箱:jnd@iem.net.cn
  • 电话:0451-86652450 86652820
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1004-4574
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:23-1324/X
  • 邮发代号:
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国自然科学核心期刊,中国科技论文统计源期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 荷兰地学数据库,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,英国科学文摘数据库,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:21121