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中文摘要：
基于季节模型的理论，通过建立不同的数学模型，研究每月肾炎发病人数，通过EViews软件对青海海西州地区肾炎发病例监测登记资料进行统计分析，并对原数据进行季节调整，剔除季节波动，排除了季节因素的干扰，同时利用不同的数学模型对原数据进行预测，观察每月肾炎发病人数的发展趋势。
英文摘要：
Based on the theory of season model, through the established different mathematic models, the number of nephritis cases each month is studied. In this paper, EViews software for the Qinghai region in Haixizhou nephritis is used to monitor cases of the registration data for statistical analysis, at the same time the adjustment method is used to adjust the original number, eliminating seasonal fluctuation and interferon of season, and different mathematic models are applied to predict the original number. The development trend of nephritis＇ number each month is observed.
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