中文摘要：

对一个20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来不同强度降水事件变化进行了分析。以日降水量的大小,将降水划分为不同等级。首先检验了模式对当代（1961—1990年）各等级降水日数的模拟能力,结果表明,与观测相比,模式模拟的小雨事件偏多而大雨事件在南方过少。21世纪末（2071—2100年）在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国区域不同强度降水的变化在各地表现不同,同时其对各个地区降水总量变化的贡献也表现出较大不同,但在大部分地区,模式给出了未来强降水事件将增加的结果。

英文摘要：

Based on the multi-decadal climate change simulations from the RegCM3 model with a resolution of 20 km,changes in precipitation events of different intensities in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario were analyzed.The events were classified to RR1（1-10 mm/d）,RR10（10-20 mm/d） and RR20（≥20 mm/d） according to the daily rainfall.Verification of the model performances in simulating present（1961-1990） distribution of the rainy days was firstly carried out.The results show an overestimation of RR1（light rain days） and a general underestimation of RR20（heavy rain days） in southern China by the model as compared to the observations.Under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario in the end of the 21st century（2071-2100）,the projection shows different changes in the RR1,RR10 and RR20 events over different areas,with a general increase in heavy rain events over most of China.The slight increase in annual mean rainfall in China is basically contributed by the increase in heavy rain events.