中文摘要：

本文通过分析发达国家“二战”后产业结构演化的内在动因以及与目前中国经济发展阶段相同时三次产业对经济增长的贡献．提出“二战”后发达国家第三产业比例不断提升主要是由于第三产业价格上涨速度快所致．而第三产业实际产出增长更快并不是重要的因素：与中国经济发展水平相同时美日两国第二产业占比仍处于上升阶段．两国第二产业对经济增长的贡献都在60％左右．是经济增长的真正动力产业。本文分析了中国在1978年以后产业结构变化状况．提出中国1978年以来不变价与当年价计算的产业结构有巨大的差异：从1978-2009年按当年价计算的产业结构变化状况是第一产业主要向第三产业进行了转移．而按不变价计算则是第一产业主要向第二产业进行了转移：中国从1978年以来经济增长的主要动力产业是第二产业．对经济增长的贡献为68．8％。本文的研究表明中国到2020年经济增长的主要动力产业仍旧是第二产业；第三产业难以成为中国经济增长的动力产业。第三产业比例的提高对真实经济增长的意义不大，因而中国没有必要把提高第三产业的比例作为产业结构升级的着力点，而是必须进一步推动中国第二产业国际竞争力提升，以此充分利用中国日益形成的质量型人口红利，从而带动中国经济有质量的高速增长。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzed the intrinsic motivation of industrial structural evolution of developed countries since the World War II and the contribution of tertiary industry when their economy is equivalent to China＇s in current stage. The author believed that the continuous rising proportion of tertiary industry is mainly due to the fast price rising instead of real output increase. When equivalent to China＇s economic development level, the proportion of tertiary industry of the U.S. and Japan keeps rising, with contribution rate exceeds 60%. This paper analyzed China＇s industrial structure since 1978 and believed that there is a big difference in industrial structure when calculated respectively in constant price and current price. From 1978 to 2009, when calculated by current price, industrial structure transferred from primary industry to tertiary industry, while from primary industry to secondary industry when calculated by constant price. The secondary industry has been the driving force of China＇s economic growth since 1978 with a contribution rat of 68.8%. Calculations of this paper show that the secondary industry will remain the major power of economic growth until 2020, and tertiary industry is not likely to be the momentum of China＇s economic growth. A rise in the proportion of the tertiary industry is insignificant to real economic growth, therefore it should not be the focus of industrial upgrading, instead, efforts should be made to enhance the international competitiveness of China＇s secondary industry.