中文摘要：

运用耕地压力指数计算了内蒙古1990-2008年间的耕地压力时间序列,选择指数模型、多项式模型和GM（1,1）模型对耕地压力变化趋势进行回归分析,建立了耕地压力的组合预测模型,采用粒子群优化算法求得组合预测模型的最优权重。研究表明：将粒子群优化算法应用到耕地压力组合预测模型的权重求解是可行的;1990-2008年间内蒙古耕地面积、人均粮食占有量都有所增加,耕地压力指数呈现明显下降趋势;预测结果表明2015年内蒙古耕地压力为0.714,未来5a粮食生产处于安全状态。最后提出了减轻耕地压力以确保粮食安全的措施。

英文摘要：

Based on the model of cultivated land pressure,this paper calculated the series of cultivated land pressure in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2008.The change trend of cultivated land pressure was analyzed by using exponential regression model,polynomial regression model and GM（1,1） model.The combination forecasting model of cultivated land pressure in Inner Mongolia was established by means of Particle Swarm Optimization（PSO）.The results showed that：①it is feasible to apply the PSO to the weight solution of power load combination forecasting model.②the cultivated land area and the quantity per capita in Inner Mongolia are increasing from 1990 to 2008,and cultivated land pressure is decreasing.The pressure index will be up to 0.714 in 2015 year,and the trend of grain production belongs to security status in the coming five years.Some measures were proposed to ease the cultivated land pressure.