中文摘要：

利用上海市2007年144个部门投入产出表,计算基于投入产出完全消耗系数的点入度和点出度,将产业划分为Ⅰ型（高点入度、高点出度）,Ⅱ型（低点入度、高点出度）,Ⅲ型（低点入度、低点出度）,Ⅳ型（高点入度、低点出度）。研究发现：1Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型和Ⅳ型制造业点入度均值分别比各类型服务业高0.52、0.45、0.04、0.27,表明制造业相对服务业具有更强的后向拉动效应。2Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型服务业点出度均值分别高于Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型制造业0.29、0.16,而Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型服务业点出度均值分别小于Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型制造业0.32、0.17,表明服务业的前向拉动效应存在着分异。3Ⅰ型、Ⅳ型制造业及服务业的点出度对GDP均具有正向的相关性,提高对这些产业的使用有利于提升GDP。Ⅱ型服务业的点入度对GDP具有负向的相关性,点入度较低的房地产开发经营业、银行业、证券业GDP分别为该类服务业前3名。Ⅱ型服务业点出度、Ⅲ型制造业和服务业点入度和点出度对GDP的回归系数均未通过显著性检验。尽管制造业GDP占比下降,制造业仍在上海产业网络中发挥着重要的作用。上海应超越后工业化的迷思,降低对房地产业的依赖,加强制造业与服务业的融合发展,特别是加强金融对制造业等实体经济的支持,提升产业网络关联多样性和非关联多样性,促进航空、航天、机器人等新兴产业的发展。

英文摘要：

In 1973, Daniel Bell coined the term ＂post-industrial society＂. According to Bell, the era of the service economy is coming up and the role of manufacturing industries tends to decline. This study aims to explore the economic transition towards a ＇post-industrial society＇ in Shanghai through the lens of an industrial input-out network. The empirical analysis is based on an input-output table among 144 industries in Shanghai for the year 2007. More specifically, an industrial network is created based on complete consumption coefficients and reveals direct and indirect connections among individual industries. Social network analysis is then applied to calculate in- and out-degrees of individual industries. The in-degree of an industry captures both direct and indirect inputs from all other industries to the industry under investigation, whereas the out-degree of an industry characterizes the （direct and indirect） flows from that industry. A typology of industries is identified based on individual industries＇ in- and out- degrees. The analysis further elaborates the difference between manufacturing and service sectors in terms of in- and out-degrees as well as characterizes the relationship between industrial connections and GDP growth. Despite the fact that manufacturing sector＇s share in GDP has been declining in the past few decades, the current study suggests that manufacturing maintains strategic positions within input-output networks among industries. In other words, manufacturing is still a relevant and integral part of Shanghai＇s economy. As for policy recommendations, the paper suggests that Shanghai should strengthen the integration of manufacturing and producer services, promote industrial clusters （i.e., improve related variety and unrelated variety among individual industries）, as well as incubate emerging industries such as aerospace technology and engineering.