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中文摘要：
以别拉洪河流域为研究区,根据3期（1986年、2000年和2005年）土地利用数据,结合道路、河流、居民点、湖泊、沟渠、海拔、坡度、坡向、人口等驱动因子,运用Logistic逐步回归分析,筛选出具有决定作用的驱动因子,然后构建了模拟别拉洪河流域土地利用变化的CLUE-S模型,动态模拟了该流域土地利用变化的时空模式。结果表明,人口密度、坡度和海拔是影响土地利用空间分布的重要因素。经检验,CLUE-S模型模拟取得了较为理想的结果,在基本单元（300 m×300 m栅格）的水平上,模型对研究区2000年和2005年土地利用分布格局模拟的总体精度分别达到78.45%、90.93%,Kappa指数分别为0.74、0.89。这说明模型具有成功模拟区域土地利用时空动态变化的能力。
英文摘要：
A CLUE-S model was constructed to simulate the spatial pattern of land use change in Bielahong River Basin using roads,rivers,residential area,lakes,ditches,elevation,slope gradient,slope aspects,and population density as driving factors based on land use data of 1986,2000,and 2005.The key driving factors were obtained by Logistic stepwise regression.Results indicate that population density,slope gradient,and elevation are dominant factors influencing the spatial pattern of land uses.It is proved that the CLUE-S model could well simulate land use change in the study area.The CLUE-S model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern of land use change in 2000 and 2002.At the basic grid level（300m×300m）,the simulation accuracy reached 78.45% and 90.93%,and Kappa indexes were 0.74 and 0.89 respectively.Therefore,the CLUE-S model constructed in this study is an important tool to explore the temporal and spatial change of land use in Bielahong River Basin for the future,which provides a scientific basis for land use programming.
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