中文摘要：

利用1980-2012年若尔盖水文站径流量资料、若尔盖及周边20个站同期气象观测数据,通过分析径流量演变规律及与气候因子的关系,研究了若尔盖生态区水资源对气候变化的响应.结果显示：近30 a该区域地表水资源整体呈波动下降趋势,气候倾向率为1.4×10~8m^3·（10a）^-1;径流量的年际分布较均匀,年内分配呈双峰型,主要集中在6-9月,同期径流量集中度、集中期及丰枯率均呈现下降趋势,峰型度呈上升趋势,这与全球气候变暖及降水量减少相关.降水量是影响该流域径流量的最主要因子,夏季降水量很大程度决定着径流量的丰枯,而秋季径流量对降水量的响应最为敏感.气温的升高导致高山冰雪消融量的增大,进而使非汛期径流量增加;同时,流域蒸发量的加大,增加了地表水资源的消耗.

英文摘要：

By using the hydrological and meteorological observation data,the variations of flow and its climate causes are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the surface water resources show n a decreasing trend at the rate of 1. 4 × 108 m3·（10a）-1,the conversion of abundant and rare year is fairly balanced. The annual distribu-tion of runoff was homogeneous. Annual runoff concentrated mainly in June- September in Zoige region,ac-counting for 60%of the annual runoff. Hydrological process has a bimodal phenomenon in year,mainly related to the plateau climate characteristics. At the same time the domain runoff concentration degree and concentra-tion period all showed a trend of decline. Precipitation is the primary factor to impact the flow of the Zoige. It shows that precipitation in summer determines the runoff,and the autumn runoff response to rainfall is the most sensitive. The ascending of air temperature,causes the enlargement of snow melting of high mountain,and there-fore makes flow increase during the non-flood period,which accelerates the river basin evaporation,and also makes the depletion of ground water resource increasing,and has a elimination function for the annual flow in-creasing caused by the precipitation.