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中文摘要：
[目的]研究气候变化因素对中国粮食贸易的影响。[方法]通过建立粮食贸易引力模型,分析影响中国粮食贸易的因素,如GDP、人口、粮食产量、二氧化碳排放量、气温等。[结果]中国GDP与粮食贸易量负相关,原因与粮食的需求弹性有关;二氧化碳排放量与粮食贸易量正相关。[结论]中国粮食种植品种结构应该随人们食物消费结构的变化而有所调整;在粮食生产和流通环节,应该有更好的制度安排,减少二氧化碳的排量。
英文摘要：
[Objective] The paper was to study the impact of climate on China’s grain trade. [Method] The grain trade gravity model was constructed and the main influence factors of the grain trade flow were analyzed, such as GDP, population, grain yield, CO2 and air temperature. [Result] GDP had negative correlation with China’s grain trade volume; carbon dioxide emissions had significantly positive correlation with China’s grain trade volume. [Conclusion] China’s grain structure of varieties should be adjusted with changes of people’s grain consumption structure; the better institutional arrangements should be created during grain production and distribution to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
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