中文摘要：

基于岩体极限平衡理论,研究了完整近水平煤层底板突水力学机制。综合考虑底板隔水层厚度、工作面斜长及隔水层岩性组合特征,推导出了底板突水极限水压值计算公式。以保德煤矿为例,将突水极限水压值法运用到保德煤矿13#煤底板突水危险性预测中。通过与传统突水系数法对比分析,阐明了突水极限水压值法的优越性：突水极限水压值法改进了传统突水系数法,可更有效地进行工作面斜长较大时的底板突水危险性预测。

英文摘要：

Based on the limit equilibrium theory of rock mass, the mechanical mechanism of water-inrush of seam floor was analyzed. The theoretical formulae of the limit hydraulic pressure of seam floor were deduced through taking the fa- cing length, the thickness and the lithological association of floor rockmass into consideration. The water-inrush risk was predicted according to the geology condition in Baode coal mine. By contrasting and analyzing, the method of limit hy- draulic pressure of seam floor could improve the water inrush coefficient method, and could be more effective in predic- ting the water inrush danger with bigger facing length.