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中文摘要：
以贝叶斯理论为依据。考虑元件可靠性评估不确定性的影响，建立分布式监测系统的系统可靠性评估方法．在单个元件存活率服从二项分布的前提下，用元件可靠度评估的高阶矩计算系统可靠度评估方差与置信区间，利用贝叶斯方法进行元件可靠度评估和系统可靠度置信区间分析．通过一个实例进行计算与分析，表明该方法在监测系统可靠性设计与评估方面有一定实用价值．
英文摘要：
An estimation method of system reliability based on Bayesian statistical theory is presented in consideration of the uncertainty of component reliability estimates for distributed monitoring systems. The system reliability estimation variance and confidence intervals are obtained with higher order moments of component reliability estimates. A Bayesian estimation method is used to estimate the higher order moments of the component reliability and to determine the confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation. A practical case is used to illustrate the procedure. The results showed that the method proposed is practical and valuable for designing monitoring systems and their maintenance.
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