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中文摘要：
地震破坏状态概率分析是抗震结构最优设防水平决策与全寿命优化设计的关键问题之一，作者们曾根据“三水准”设防原则和地震烈度的危险性分析结果提出了二种实用分析方法。本文建立了结构破坏状态概率分析的地震易损性理论基础，提出了极限状态地震易损性和破坏状态地震易损性的概念。从地震易损性理论的角度，对二种地震破坏状态概率简化分析方法进行了深入分析，指出第1种方法是一种考虑结构宏观抗震能力不确定性的半理论半经验易损性分析方法，而第2种方法则是一种不考虑结构宏观抗震能力不确定性的简化易损性分析方法，根据地震破坏状态概率的计算结果对二种方法进行了对比分析，并提出了相关的建议。
英文摘要：
Probabilistic analysis of damage optimal protection level decision-making states of structures under seismic excitations is one of key problems in and minimum life-cycle cost design of aseismic structures. The authors put forward two practical approaches to evaluation of seismic damage state probabilities of structures in the past, according to the three-level seismic design principle and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of earthquake intensity. The foundation of seismic fragility theory is built for evaluation of seismic structures presented. in which the concepts and definitions of limit state seismic fragility and The two practical analysis approaches for evaluation of seismic damage damage damage state probabilities of state seismic fragility are state probabilities of structure are analyze＇d thoroughly from the viewpoint of seismic fragility theory. It is found that the first approach is a semi-theoretical and semi-empirical seismic fragility analysis method, which considers the uncertainty in the macro-scope seismic capacity of structures; while the second approach is a simplified seismic fragility analysis method, which doesn＇ t consider the uncertainty in the macro-scope seismic capacity of structures. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the computing results of seismic damage state probabilities of structures, and the suggestions of selection of two simplified seismic fragility methodologies for the optimal protection level decision-making and minimum life-cycle cost design of aseismic structures are offered.
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