以死亡人数最少化为目标,研究大规模伤亡事件应对流程的前摄性调度优化问题。首先,使用伤情等级和伤情随机转化的马尔可夫链,建立伤员死亡概率与伤员处置时间的函数关系。随后,将研究问题转化为柔性作业车间静态调度问题,并设计遗传算法求解。最后用一个随机算例对算法进行仿真,结果表明:该算法可行有效;与现有研究中救援时间最短化的调度方法相比,伴随着可接受的救援时间跨度增加,该方法可大幅降低救援过程中的死亡人数。本文研究有助于决策者优化应急救援过程,有效减少死亡人员数量。
This paper investigates proactive scheduling optimization problem of emergency response , with fatalities minimization as objective .First, triage levels and its stochastic Markov Chain are introduced , to establish func-tion from rescued time to probability of death .Then we translate proposed problem to a proactive job shop sched-uling problem, and design a genetic algorithm to find solution .Finally, a simulation experiment is done , and it shows: the algorithm works feasibly and efficiently; although makespan increases , the proposed scheduling reduces number of fatalities significantly comparing to min-makespan scheduling .The research in this paper can provide decision supports for the organization and coordination of emergency response .