中文摘要：

传统电力系统随机生产模拟难以准确描述负荷、风电出力和储能荷电状态（state of charge,SOC）的时序变化特性,也难以反映灵活多样的系统运行调度策略,导致生产模拟准确性欠佳。为此,提出了含风电和储能电力系统时序随机生产模拟方法。该方法计及了系统运行调度策略,将运行调度策略与随机生产模拟中的各机组加载顺序和储能充放电条件等对应起来,有效地描述了各种运行调度策略。为保留元件出力和负荷的时序变化特性,采用可用容量状态刻画各时刻的机组出力状态,将储能充放电分别等效为负荷和机组2部分分别计入基于时序负荷曲线的随机生产模拟中,并建立了描述储能容量状态变化的时变SOC概率分布模型。基于修改的RBTS测试系统进行分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

Traditional power system probabilistic production simulation ignores sequential variation characteristics of load, wind power output and energy storage state of charge（SOC）, and cannot describe flexible and diverse operation scheduling strategies of power system with energy storage, thus bringing non-negligible errors. In order to deal with the sequential variation features and various operation scheduling strategies, a sequential probabilistic production simulation method for power systems with wind power and energy storage is proposed in this paper. The operation scheduling strategies are associated with unit loading orders and energy storage charge/discharge conditions in the proposed method. Available capacity state model is adopted to describe output state of the units at each time. Energy storage charge and discharge are equivalent to load and generator, respectively, and added to sequential probabilistic production simulation framework. The proposed method is based on load profile and can retain the sequential variation features. A time-varying probability distribution model is also proposed to model the temporal correlation property of SOC variation. The proposed method is applied into a modified RBTS system, verifying its validity.