中文摘要：

由于导致全球温度异常的因素的多样性，使得至21世纪末全球温度是否将持续上升存在较大的不确定性。文章基于新兴的非数值算法的遗传算法，对1880～2009年全球温度异常数据，做了驱动因子挖掘，将全球温度异常分解为人类活动的碳排放造成的温度波动和全球气候系统自然振动的温度波动两部分。研究发现，当前全球气候系统存在持续变暖的趋势，至2100年，全球温度将上升约1．84～2．11℃。然而这个趋势叠加了由于全球气候系统周期性振动造成的周期性冷相位，表现出局部时段全球温度的平稳或下降，并分别发生于2005～2030年和2071～2085年前后，冷相位的持续时间呈缩短趋势。

英文摘要：

Due to the diversity and complicity of reasons for global temperature anomalies,it is still uncertain about whether the global temperature will keep rising by the end of the century. With the 1880 - 2009 global temperature variations, this paper decomposes the temperature variations into the anthropogenic factors,which contributed by carbon emission from human activities, and the natural forcing, which is contributed by the natural oscillation of climate system. Results show that the anthropogenic forcing grows exponentially since 1860 ,while the natural forcing runs as a sine trend with a 60-year cycle which is composed by warm phase and cool phase. Therefore, though the anthropogenic forcing will work on a continuously temperature raise, the alternate cool phase of nature climate system will offset the warming trend indicating a temperature stabilization or even decrease. With the extrapolation on functions fitting to global temperature anomalies, the major trend of global climate system is continued warming reaching 1.84 - 2. 11 Celsius Degree anomaly by 2100 relative to pre-industrialization,but periodic temperature stabilization or decrease will occur in 2005 - 2030 and 2071 - 2085. Further, due to the enhancement of exponential anthropogenic forcing on global temperature, the duration of temperature stabilization or decrease will become shorter one after another.