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安徽省池州市贵池区急性血吸虫病的空间自相关分析

ISSN号：1005-6661
期刊名称：中国血吸虫病防治杂志
时间：0
页码：341-344
语言：中文
分类：R532.21[医药卫生—临床医学;医药卫生—内科学]
作者机构：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室、教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室,上海200032, [2]安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病防治站
相关基金：国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）（2006AA022402）、国家自然科学基金重大项目（30590374）
相关项目：基于现代信息技术研究传染病时空传播与流行规律

关键词：血吸虫病, 流行病学, 空间统计学, 空间自相关, Schistosomiasis , Epidemiology, Spatial statistics, Spatial autocorrelation

中文摘要：

目的探讨安徽省池州市贵池区的急性血吸虫病（急血）病例是否存在空间自相关,为有效利用资料提供方法学依据。方法将贵池区区划图与207个村的空间位置进行叠加,生成村级基础地图。通过回顾性调查方法,收集2001～2006年的急血病例资料,将其作为属性数据库与村的空间位置进行匹配,生成空间自相关分析的急血病例数据库。选用连接计数统计量测量并检验急血病例的空间自相关性。结果2001～2006年全区共有急血病例83例,各年度病例数依次为13、23、13、14、14、6例。男性发病多于女性,平均发病年龄为23.73岁,发病时间集中在7～10月。急血病例在2001～2003年存在正空间自相关（B-B连接计数依次为1.43、1.96和1.03,P值均为0.01）,而在2004～2006年不存在空间自相关（B-B连接计数依次为0.69、0.48和0.10,P值分别为0.08、0.25和0.29）。结论贵池区急血病例的发生地由集中向分散变化,必须时刻警惕以防止疫情的突然上升。

英文摘要：

Objective To discuss whether the acute schistosomiasis has spatial autocorrelation in the Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and provide the methodology for using the data effectively, Methods The regional map of Guichi District was overlaid with the spatial positions of 207 villages to produce the village-based map. The data of acute schistosomiasis from 2001 to 2006 collected through the method of retrospective survey were treated as attribute database, and matched with the village positions to generate the database for spatial autocorrelation analysis. Joint count statistics was selected to calculate and test spatial autocorrelation of acute schistosomiasis. Results There were 83 acute cases in the Guichi District from 2001 to 2006, and the number of cases in each year were 13, 23, 13, 14, 14 and 6 in turn, The cases in male were more than that in female, the average age was 23, 73 years, and the time of occurrence was focused on the months from July to October. Spatial autocorrelation existed from 2001 to 2003 （joint count statistics for B- B were 1.43,1.96 and 1, 03 respectively, P values were all 0, 01）, but disappeared from 2004 to 2006 （joint count statistics for B-B were 0. 69,0. 48 and 0, 10, P values were 0, 08,0, 25 and 0.29 respectively）. Conclusion Acute schistosomiasis shows a change from concentration to scatter, which should be paid enough attention to at any moment to avoid the sudden increase of endemic.

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