2003年以来,我国粮食进口不断增长且态势迅猛,表现出几个新特征:总体已稳居净进口地位;主要粮食品种全面净进口;在国际粮价高企中进口逆势增长;不同品种进口依存度存在差别。随着国内供需缺口继续扩大,未来我国粮食进口仍将保持增势。粮食进口持续增长的现状与趋势,将给我国粮食市场带来相关的风险,具体包括:粮食价格波动加剧风险;产业安全与冲击风险;农民收入波动风险;转基因进口的环境压力风险等。为规避这些已经显现或者极有可能的风险,我国需要关注以下几个方面:完善粮食信息预警系统;进口差异化与适度保护;进口与对外投资相配套;完善期货市场;加大农业定向支持特别是农民收入支持。
Since 2003,China 's grain imports have been growing rapidly which have shown several new features,including: the overall net import position has been stable; imports are growing with the international grain prices increase; the import dependences of different varieties are different. With the expansion of the domestic supply and demand gap , in futur , the grain import of China will still maintain its increas ing trend. All these will bring associated risks to China's grain market. Specifically, these risks could be: volatility risks of domestic grain price ; risks of industry safety ; fluctuation risks of farmers ' income and the environmental risks of genetically modified grain imports. To avoid these revealed or potential risks, we should focus on the following aspects: improving the warning system of grain in formation, especially of the grain imports ; Differentiating imports and offering moderate trade protection; coordinately developing grain imports and overseas investment ; improving the futures market of grain; increasing directional agricultural support ,especially on farmers ' income.