中文摘要：

在全球气候变化大背景下，农业巨灾风险评估是保险和再保险行业亟待解决的理论和技术问题。同时也是中国农业稳定发展所急需的。本文针对基于灾害系统理论的综合指标评估法、基于损失的数理统计评估法和基于过程机理的作物模型评估法三类农业巨灾风险评估方法进行综述，结果表明：基于灾害系统理论的综合指标评估法可以得到相对风险等级，最终风险评估结果很难一致，且无法反映致灾因子与灾害损失之间的定量关系；基于损失的数理统计评估法，对“低频高损”的农业巨灾风险的评估存在局限，会产生偏差和误差；基于过程机理的模型评估法，其仿真模型的准度和精度都有待提高。因此，亟待确定针对特定区域和灾种开展相应的巨灾风险评估方法。

英文摘要：

Agricuhural catastrophe risk assessment（ACRA） is a practical and pressing issue for China＇s steady ag- ricultural development under the background of global climate change. Moreover, ACRA is also a theoretical and technical question that the insurance and reinsurance industry need to tackle. This review is based on the comprehensive index evaluation method of the disaster system theory ＇ the loss assessment method of mathematical statistics, and the crop model evaluation method of the process mechanism. The results showed that ： the comprehensive index evaluation method based on disaster system theory could get the relative risk grade, but was difficult to align the fi- nal risk assessment results, and could not reflect the quantitative relationship between hazards and disaster losses. The loss assessment method of mathematical statistics was inadequate on the assessment of ＂ low frequency high loss＂ agricultural risks and could cause deviations and errors. As for the model evaluation method based on process mechanism, the accuracy and precision of its simulation model were yet to be improved. Therefore, we need to develop catastrophe risk assessment methods for specific areas and hazards.