伴随着金融市场的逐步完善以及互联网技术日新月异,我国金融脱媒趋势逐年显著。非银行融资方式对商业银行资产端和负债端的脱媒势必会影响我国商业银行的业务结构以及盈利模式,并会对我国商业银行的传统业务带来前所未有的挑战。笔者选用2000—2013年商业银行贷款、存款、国内生产总值、债券发行规模、股票市场融资规模、信托资产规模、银行理财产品等季度数据,通过建立VAR模型方法来定量评估各种金融脱媒因素对我国商业银行资产负债业务的冲击程度以及度量其贡献度,从而为我国商业银行在业务结构、服务模式、风险管理等方面转型提供实证支持及政策建议。
With the financial market perfecting and Internet technology advancing,the trend of financial disintermediation is remarkable year after year. Non-bank finance making asset side and the liability side of the commercial banks disintermediation will certainly affect the business structure and earnings mode of China's commercial banks,and bring the unprecedented challenges to the traditional business of commercial banks. This article selects the quarter data of commercial bank loans,deposits,GDP,bond issuance,equity market financing scale,trust assets scale,financial products from 2000 to 2013. Through the establishment of VAR model we figure out the extent of financial disintermediation and the contribution of the factors impacting on China's commercial bank assets and liabilities. Thus,we provide the empirical support and policy suggestions to Chinese commercial banks to transfer the business structure,service mode and risk management.